Marco Alcocer

Book Project



Criminal Conglomerates: How Drug Cartels Diversify and Capture the State in Latin America
- Book manuscript workshop held in May 2025


Publications



6. The Transformation of Mexican Cartels and Violence Against State Officials
      with Megan Erickson
      Journal of Peace Research, Conditionally accepted

5. Criminal Conflicts and the Killing of Law Enforcement Officers in Mexico
      Journal of Conflict Resolution (2025)
      Acknowledgements

4. Female Politicians and Violence Against Women: Evidence from Mexico
      with Rachel Skillman and Angie Torres-Beltran
      Political Science Research and Methods (2025)
      - In the media: Nexos

3. Increasing Intergovernmental Coordination to Fight Crime: Evidence from a Police Reform in Mexico
      Political Science Research and Methods (2024)

2. Supplemental online resources improve data literacy education: Evidence from a social science methods course
      with Leonardo Falabella, Alexandra Lange, Nicholas Smith, and Maureen Feeley
      PLOS ONE (2024)

1. Integrating Potential Outcomes and Causal Mechanisms to Guide Multi-Method Research
      Qualitative & Multimethod Research (2023)

Mapping Criminal Organizations in Mexico: State Panel 2007-2015
with Patrick Signoret, Cecilia Farfan-Mendez, and Fernanda Sobrino
Harvard Dataverse (2021)
- In the media: El FinancieroMexico Today (by Reforma)IMER NoticiasAl Calor PoliticoCuestione 

Public-Facing



Mexico: War of the drug cartels (documentary)
- DW Documentary: English, Spanish. ARTE TV (Europe): German/French

¿Las mujeres políticas reducen la violencia contra las mujeres? with Angie Torres-Beltran
- Nexos

Fentanyl Network "El Mencho" (in Polish)
- Do Rzeczy

Episode 10: Looking Across the Southern Border - Drug Wars and Politics in Mexico
- World Discord Podcast

Ongoing Projects



Working Papers
Queenpins: Women Leaders and Violence in Organized Crime (with Fernanda Quintanilla Domínguez). Revised and Resubmitted.
Abstract

Criminal organizations kill tens of thousands each year. This article argues that criminal organizations under women leadership are less violent due to women's gendered pathways to power. We examine Mexico’s Tijuana Cartel and leverage the 2008 ascension of a woman to leadership following her brother's arrest. Synthetic control results show that the Tijuana Cartel reduced visible violence and territorial expansion under a woman's leadership, but slightly increased hidden forms of violence. Original data on all male cartel leaders in Mexico shows systematic gender differences in pre-leadership violent socialization and expertise that help explain the results. We probe generalizability by constructing 44 case studies of women criminal leaders across 18 countries since 1850 and find that gender profoundly shapes their trajectories, with our findings likely extending to women who inherit leadership from male kin. Our findings highlight the need to incorporate gender into research on organized crime.


Border Externalization and Migrant Welfare in Transit (with Elena Barham). Revised and Resubmitted.

Border Externalization and Violence Along Migration Routes: Evidence from Remain in Mexico (with Elena Barham). Submitted.

Criminal Fragmentation: The Logic of Splintering in Organized Crime (with Lucía Hesles Toscana). Submitted.
Abstract

Criminal organizations (COs) often fragment, triggering inter-CO wars that are frequently deadlier than civil wars. Despite fragmentation being a major driver of violence, we know little about who fragments, when, or how. This article theorizes that potential defectors, differing in strength relative to their parent CO, strategically weigh two concerns when considering fragmenting during moments of organizational uncertainty: economic viability that depends on illicit market structure and surviving retaliation that is conditioned by geography and alliances. Leveraging an original dataset of Mexico's drug cartels and their fragments from 2000 to 2018, we find that fragmentation is rare even after leadership decapitation, and that strong fragments can operate near their parent cartel, compete in similar markets, and form military alliances with other cartels to withstand retaliation, while weaker fragments survive by operating in distant areas and more localized markets. These findings provide the microfoundations for criminal fragmentation as a strategic process.


Drug Wars, Organized Crime Expansion, and State Capture in Mexico. New version coming soon
- [Draft]

Disguised Vigilantes: Civilian Uprisings and Strategic Fragmentation in Organized Crime (with Renatta Salinas Delgado and Megan Erickson).

Work in Progress
Music, Organized Crime, and Government Censorship: The Case of Narcocorridos in Mexico (with Isabel Laterzo-Tingley).